Saturday, January 24, 2015

When our Government shuts down..The Shutdown of 2013



The Government Shutdown of 2013


So, we ended the streak of having 17 years go by since the last time our politicians could not agree on a budget and the federal government was forced to shut down all non-essential services. Thousands of government workers have been furloughed with no end in sight and the "End of the World Preppers" are coming out of the woodwork and predicting a total economic and social collapse!  I guess my wife and I made a mistake when we chose to build a new patio instead of a bomb shelter and buying a year’s supply of MRE’s.

How did we get here?
Each year Congress is supposed to agree on a budget to fund the next years’ worth of government waste (sorry, I mean expenses). The fiscal year ends on Sept. 30 each year, but congressional leaders were not able to agree on how to divvy up all the pork in the budget. So, without an agreement on the budget – which is essentially a law passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate pay what amounts to trillions of dollars in annual expenses for the next fiscal year, the government effectively shuts down at midnight on Oct. 1st.
With that said, the government has not ground to a complete halt. Services deemed to be essential like tax collection, the mail, and the military will continue to operate. Non-essential departments and employees will be furloughed and attractions like the National Zoo will be closed until further notice.
The last government shutdown was in 1996, when President Bill Clinton and House Speaker Newt Gingrich could not reach a deal. That shutdown lasted nearly a month.
Why can’t we all just get along?
The impasse between the GOP and the Dems centers around funding the Affordable Care Act, or what has lovingly become known as Obamacare. This piece of legislation (passed early in the President’s first term in office) would increase the number of Americans who receive health insurance by requiring them to buy it.  It is no longer a choice to buy health insurance because you will be subjected to paying a penalty if you don’t have health coverage from somewhere.  The responsibility of collecting any penalties for those that don’t purchase coverage falls on the shoulders of the IRS each year at tax time.
The budget stalemate stems from the fact that the House of Representatives are controlled by Republicans and the Senate by the Democrats.  The Tea Party representatives in Congress are adamantly opposed to Obamacare and seem willing to do anything to defund or delay it.  It appears they are willing to derail a still fragile economy, not fund expenditures they passed legislation to pay years ago, and would potentially even cause the country to default on its sovereign debts.
The tennis match goes like this: The Republicans keep passing budgets in Congress that they send to the Democratic controlled Senate for approval but they get rejected on arrival because they include language to defund or delay Obamacare.  Ironically, the government shutdown doesn’t affect Obamacare.  In fact, the online exchanges to buy health insurance went live at midnight on October 1st, just as the rest of the government was being shut down.
So now what happens?

It becomes about who is going to blink first and succumb to the pressure to cut a deal. What does that take you might ask?  It boils down to who wins or loses the public “popularity contest.”  Each side is working day and night to make the other appear to be at fault for the shutdown.  So the winner in this fiasco will be the side that succeeds in making the other side take the blame in the court of public opinion.  It appears that this is the sad state of what has become politics today.
We are all confident the shutdown will end and the drama will subside until the next crisis (right around the corner) becomes front page news.  The sad part is that no matter how this turns out I can’t help but think that America has already lost.  I would opine that our elected officials, most importantly starting with President Obama, have lost their sense of leadership, bipartisanship and doing what’s best for the country in the long run because they seem focused on serving personal interests and agendas over everything else.  Regardless of which party affiliation occupies the White House, I believe it is the President’s role to lead and consensus build to get things that need to be done.  I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that President Obama’s approval rating is at its lowest point at the same time he is providing little to no leadership towards generating a solution to our budget impasse.  I believe that when times get tough, leadership makes all the difference.
In the meantime, I guess we can just shake our heads in disbelief and pray that sound judgment and a mutual compromise will ultimately prevail in the battle of the budget.  If not, does anyone know a good contractor specializing in building bomb shelters?  

Thursday, January 8, 2015

SPIA – The Good Annuity versus accumulation based Annuity Products

SPIA – The Good Annuity versus accumulation based Annuity Products


By Donald J. Lester

What happened to the Retirement Pensions my Grandfather had?

 Most of us probably know someone that collected a monthly pension from their company after 30+ years of loyal service on the job.  My grandfather was one of the few I knew that did.  He worked for 30 years as a welder for a large corporation and touted to me that his pension income would be greater than what he made each year when he was working.  In financial jargon, a pension is also referred to as a defined benefit plan.  The reason we don’t know many people collecting pensions today is because they have purposely been phased out over the past 40 years due to the high costs associated with providing a lifetime of pension income and health benefits to workers that are no longer productive to the company.  American corporations have largely replaced the pension plan with some form of 401k plan (known as a defined contribution plan).  Defined contribution plans have the effect of shifting the responsibility of providing for retirement from the company to the worker.
 
SPIA – The Good Annuity versus accumulation based Annuity Products

I feel many annuity products (maybe even most) are a raw deal for investors. They generally come with high investment related expenses, mortality and insurance costs, and lengthy surrender charges.  When you combine the high internal costs associated with accumulating assets inside an annuity, it can dramatically reduce your long term investment performance and increase your risk.  Ultimately, your contributions plus your net investment performance will determine the size of your retirement nest egg as you enter retirement.  Additionally, annuity contracts tend to be very complex instruments and few investors can properly assess whether using an annuity for accumulation is actually a good idea for them or not.  That said, one specific type of annuity can be a useful and powerful tool for generating guaranteed amounts of retirement income: a Single Premium Immediate Annuity (SPIA).

What’s a SPIA?


A SPIA is a contract with an insurance company whereby:
  1. You pay them a lump-sum of money up front; and
  2. They promise to pay you a certain amount of money each month for the rest of your life, the joint life of a husband and wife, or a certain period of time as defined in the contract at the time of purchase.
SPIA’s can be helpful tools for retirees for two reasons:
  1. They help make retirement income planning predictable and easier; and
  2. They typically provide a higher withdrawal rate than you can otherwise safely take from a market based investment portfolio.

A properly structured SPIA will ensure that you never run out of money in retirement.  This is a feature of retirement planning that fits just about anyone’s situation.  Now that most retiree’s don’t have a lifetime pension from their company when they retire, a SPIA can take its place by providing guaranteed income to supplement social security and other non-guaranteed income sources such as regular withdrawals from your investment portfolio.  With a SPIA you’re essentially buying yourself a form of “Private Pension” with a portion of your investment portfolio.

What’s so great about a SPIA compared to the other fancy annuity products that my agent or financial advisor is promoting?

A SPIA is a commodity.  The terms of the contract are simple, standardized, and pure.  Because of this, there are lots of insurance companies out there competing for this business.  Competition keeps prices and costs lower, which should translate into a good deal for you.  There are plenty of bells and whistles that can be added on to a SPIA.  But keep in mind that every additional feature will cost you in the form of a lower distribution rate which means less income to enjoy retirement with.

What distribution rate (income stream) can you expect from a SPIA?

The chart below demonstrates historical distribution rates based on the Life Only option.  The distribution rates quoted are averages based on historical data covering the period of 1986 through 2011.

MALE

FEMALE
Age 60
Age 65
Age 70
Age 75

Age 60
Age 65
Age 70
Age 75
8.27%
10.04%
11.23%
12.57%

7.73%
9.18%
10.00%
11.14%

Ultimately, the rate of return you will earn on your principal will depend on how long you live to collect the monthly payments.  Rates of return will be quite good for those blessed with longevity.  But a high return isn’t the point of these things.  The point is that the return is guaranteed.  It’s an insurance product, and you should buy it for the insurance benefit.  You’re insuring against the possibility of a long life and that you cannot “out live” the income stream.  It is important to understand that the income from a SPIA is not market driven, nor is it negatively affected by poor investment performance or decision making.  In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see data in the future which reflects that those who purchase SPIA’s actually live longer (less stress watching the markets go up and down).

Fixed SPIA’s are also helpful because they allow you to retire on less money than you would need if you relied on a typical market based investment portfolio for most of your retirement income. For example, most the financial professionals would advise you to assume 3.5% to 4% as safe annual withdrawal rate from your investments during retirement.  Any higher withdrawal rate and there’s a meaningful chance that you would run out of money during your lifetime.  The risk of outliving your assets disappears with a SPIA.

How is that possible?  In short, it’s possible because the annuitant gives up the right to keep the money when they die. If you buy a SPIA and die the next day, the money is gone. Your heirs don’t get to keep it — the insurance company does. And the insurance company uses (most of) that money to fund the payouts on SPIA’s purchased by people who are still living.  In essence, SPIA purchasers who die before their life expectancy end up funding the retirement of SPIA purchasers who live past their life expectancy.

But I Want to Leave Something to My Heirs!


For many people, knowing that the money used to purchase a SPIA will not go to their heirs is a deal breaker. And that’s OK. It’s perfectly natural to want to leave something to your kids or other loved ones.
The important takeaway here is that if your retirement may last thirty years or more, and if your savings are of a size such that you’d need to use a withdrawal rate much higher than 3.5% to 4%, you may not have much of a choice.  If you choose not to annuitize — in the hope of leaving more to your kids — the decision could backfire on you.  If you run out of money while you’re still alive, instead of leaving an inheritance to your kids, your final gift will be to become a financial burden on them.  This is not a pleasant thought for any parent.

Are there some other benefits of a SPIA I should know about?

Assuming you are not using IRA/401k or Roth IRA money to purchase a SPIA, a portion of the SPIA payments are considered by the IRS as a return of your principal, and thus are tax-free.  An annuity is also generally protected from creditors and sometimes isn’t counted toward your Medicaid assets when qualifying for Medicaid coverage of nursing home care.  It also is not part of your estate (since it is gone at your death) so this could help in the area of estate planning depending on the size of your estate.
What if the insurance company goes under?

One problem with a long-term contract with an insurance company is that you’re relying on the insurance company’s ability to actually pay in the future (perhaps decades from now).  Similar to FDIC coverage for bank accounts, most states will cover annuities up to a certain limit per person.  You can minimize the risk by buying from highly-rated companies, and perhaps by buying several different SPIA’s from several different insurance companies.  For example, if you wanted $400,000 of SPIA’s, but your state guarantee was only $100,000 per company per person, you could buy two policies, one on each spouse, from each of two different highly rated insurance companies.

SPIA Income: Is It Safe?


Because the income from an annuity is backed by an insurance company, financial literature usually refers to it as “guaranteed.”  But that doesn’t mean it’s a 100% sure-thing like long term treasury bonds issued and backed by the full faith and credit of the United States Government! Ha Ha…laughing very hard.  Just like any company, insurance companies can go out of business. It’s not common, but it’s certainly not impossible, especially given that:

  1. The longer the period in question, the greater the likelihood of any given company going out of business; and
  2. The entire point of an annuity is to protect you against longevity risk (that is, the risk that you last longer than your money).  For the typical 65 year old retiree, we could be talking about a fairly long period of time (maybe 30 years).  If you’re careful choosing your annuity provider, the possibility of the insurance company going out of business shouldn’t be something that keeps you up at night.


Check Your Insurance Company’s Financial Strength


Before placing a portion of your retirement savings in the hands of an insurance company, it’s important to check the company’s financial strength. I’d suggest checking with multiple ratings agencies such as Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s, and A.M. Best.

State Guarantee Associations

Even if the issuer (insurance company) of your SPIA does go bankrupt, you aren’t necessarily in trouble.  Each State has a guarantee association (funded by the insurance companies themselves) that will step in if your insurance company becomes insolvent.  It’s important to note, however, that the state guarantee associations only provide coverage up to a certain limit and that limit varies from state to state.  Additionally and equally important: the rules regarding the coverage vary from state to state.  For example, some States only provide coverage to investors who are residents of their State at the time the insurance company becomes insolvent. So if you move to a different State after purchasing your SPIA, you could be putting your money at risk in the event your insurance company gets in financial trouble.

Minimizing Your Risk

In short, SPIA’s can be a very useful tool for minimizing the risk that you’ll run out of money in retirement. But to maximize the likelihood that you’ll receive the promised payout, it’s important to take the following steps:
  1. Check the financial strength of the insurance company before purchasing a SPIA.
  2. Know the limit for guarantee association coverage in your state as well as the rules accompanying such coverage.
  3. Consider diversifying between insurance companies..
  4. Before moving from one state to another, be sure to check the guarantee association coverage in your new state to make sure you’re not putting your standard of living at risk.

At what age should I buy an annuity?

My personal opinion is that you should buy them when you need them and in an amount that fits with the retirement lifestyle you want to ensure.  If you retire young, there’s nothing wrong with putting some of your money into SPIA’s to ensure a “floor” for your retirement income.  I wouldn’t put it all in SPIA’s at that young age, and you can always purchase additional SPIA’s later.  Likewise, if you’re 90, and you’re afraid of running out of money, a SPIA will keep you from doing that.  Plus, at that age you get huge payments every year (up to 20% of the initial purchase price.)  You only have to live 5 years to get your money back.  Keep in mind that the number of companies willing to sell you an annuity goes down as you get older than 75.

What about inflation?

Most SPIAs are fixed, meaning they pay out the same amount each year in nominal dollars.  Just like with bond coupon payments, inflation can really eat up a lot of purchasing power on a fixed income as the years add up.  My recommended strategy is to avoid annuitizing your retirement stash all at once.  Then, if you find you need more income after enduring 10 years of inflation, you can just annuitize another chunk of your portfolio.  Hopefully, your portfolio will beat inflation so you would still have something left to buy another SPIA with.

The Role of Interest Rates


SPIA distribution rates change as a function of market interest rates. When market interest rates are higher, SPIA payouts are higher because the insurance company can invest your money at a higher rate of return.
So the decision regarding how much to allocate to the purchase of a SPIA needs to also take into account the current interest rate environment at the time of purchase.  In today’s historically low interest rate climate, I would be careful about allocating too much to the purchase of a SPIA.  Expecting that interest rates are heading up in the coming years would likely to have a positive effect on the distribution rates being offered by insurance companies when purchasing a SPIA. So, where you think interest rates are headed next is something to be considered and weighed carefully.  If you expect interest rates to rise, delaying your SPIA purchase is more attractive than if you expect interest rates to decline.  Delaying your purchase also means you will be a year older which will increase the distribution rate.

How and where can I get a SPIA?

Since it’s an insurance product, you would be well served to find an experienced agent that can help you shop the SPIA marketplace at the time you want to establish your own “Private Pension” plan for guaranteed retirement income.  When purchasing a SPIA, the agent should help you take into account company ratings, available distribution rates, State guarantee limits, and other income sources you have available, available liquidity, net worth, longevity (family history), permanent life insurance death benefits, and your estate planning goals.


©2012 Donald J Lester